Market outlook | Industry conference: 27–28 October 2026 | Source published: 28 October 2026
Global demand for cashews may exceed the supply of raw cashew nuts (RCN) in 2026, according to an Olam Group forecast reported by VietnamPlus / Vietnam News Agency on 28 October. The projection was discussed at the 15th Vietnam International Cashew Conference, held on 27–28 October in Ho Chi Minh City.
A projected gap of 316,000 tonnes
Olam’s supply-demand outlook estimates global raw cashew production of approximately 6.184 million tonnes against anticipated demand of 6.5 million tonnes in 2026. The difference is a projected shortfall of 316,000 tonnes.
The figures are forecasts, not final measured production or consumption totals. VietnamPlus also reported Olam’s estimate that the market had a surplus of about 312,000 tonnes in 2025, which could be largely absorbed during 2026.
Changing competition across processing markets
The conference also highlighted increasing investment in cashew processing in African producing countries. VietnamPlus reported that Côte d’Ivoire’s cashew kernel exports increased during the first nine months of 2026. This shift may create new competition for processors that have historically relied on imported raw nuts.
At the same time, demand trends differ across destinations. The report cited stronger cashew trade flows to several Asian and North American markets, while some other regions saw declines. Import and export growth should not automatically be interpreted as equal growth in retail consumption.
What this could mean for Cambodia
Cambodia is a significant raw cashew producing country. As an implication rather than a confirmed outcome, tighter global RCN availability could affect procurement competition and the bargaining environment for Cambodian growers and traders. For domestic processors, it could make raw-material planning, inventory management and financing more important.
However, a projected global supply gap does not guarantee higher farmgate prices in Cambodia. Local prices depend on kernel demand, nut quality, harvest conditions, buyer activity, transport costs and other market factors.
The report also highlighted international buyers’ emphasis on consistent quality, food safety, traceability and reliable delivery. These are relevant priorities for Cambodian processors seeking to increase domestic value addition.
Outlook remains uncertain
Olam’s forecast points to potential tightness before the next major harvest cycle, but weather, actual harvest volumes and consumer demand may change the balance. Businesses should monitor updated supply estimates and market quotations rather than treating the 316,000-tonne figure as a settled result.
Source: VietnamPlus / Vietnam News Agency, 28 October 2026. Read the original Vietnamese report.